![]() The Giants are 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, but they've scored garbage-time touchdowns in three of those games to make the final score seem closer. are 1-7, but their Pythagorean expectation suggests they should have something closer to 2.6 wins. Speaking of the Giants, they're also in this discussion, although I'm a little skeptical. The 49ers get to play the Giants and Buccaneers over the next two weeks, two of the more generous offenses in the league. Their turnover margin - minus-13 - is likely to improve, given that the defense has forced only five takeaways in nine games. The Niners have been competitive even after losing Jimmy Garoppolo and narrowly lost to the Cardinals, Chargers and Packers on the road despite leading each of those games in the fourth quarter. The injury-riddled 49ers are 2-7 heading into Monday Night Football, but their point differential suggests that Kyle Shanahan's team should be something closer to a 3.6-win team so far. With that being said, there are some obvious candidates for teams that have outplayed their record so far this season, though they have little hope of turning things around into meaningful campaigns. There's a chance teams down toward the bottom of the NFL standings simply don't resemble the units of the first half as organizations try out young talent or tune out lame-duck coaches. It's always dangerous to project improvement for teams either down to unplayable backups or decaying statesmen under center, because when the numbers that normally help predict performance don't work, there's usually replacement-level quarterback play to blame. Improved teams | BAL offense | MIA, WSH decline?ĪFC South | NFC North | NFC South | TD regressionġ. I'll start by looking on the bright side: I'll also be citing ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which projects what will happen over the rest of the NFL season and postseason. You can find out more about many of the numbers I'll mention by reading this primer. We're not dealing with a huge sample when you consider that the league's 32 teams have played only eight or nine games, but when you look at the league with statistics based around points or plays as opposed to wins, the extra data can reveal quite a bit about what's going to happen in the second half of this campaign. ![]() With the NFL season hitting its halfway mark at Week 9, it's a great time to take a look at some of the statistics I rely upon to help project and make sense of the NFL season. What's real and what's not from the NFL's first half, and why it matters You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser
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